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Canada: An Emerging Market?

For those who follow the energy sector, the US government blocked the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline several weeks ago. The proposed pipeline was to transport oil from Alberta to the Gulf of Mexico where it was to be refined and then either exported or sold into the US market. We all know that politics in the US has hit an all time high on the 'slime' meter, but what shocked me most was the reactions of Canadians. 

One question: Is Canada so dependent on one pipeline and one product export that the entire stock market can drop by the cancellation of one project?

The type of economic, political and media reaction was one that is typical to those that we see in an emerging market: where there are only a handful of projects that make up a large portion of an economy and if one fails, the entire country is rocked to its foundation. 

The Canadian reaction to the Keystone decision is a reflection of a failed national energy strategy as well as a failed national strategy to diversify the economy while reducing its dependence on the US. If Canada is to secure its economic future, it needs to make sure that it produces more and exports more to countries other than the US. 

 

The Great Greek Sucker Punch

Mr. Papandreau is a career politician, a true political survivor.  With the announcement of a referendum on the bailout, he has single handedly managed to hand over responsibility of a hard default to the masses.

For those who are wondering what the real spirit behind the referendum is, it is essentially the single most important step toward adopting the Drachma and therefore letting go of the Euro.

Of course, all this comes at the expense of Mr.Sarkozy and Mrs.Merkel. I would argue that this referendum represents one of the greatest sucker punches ever to have been delivered to the EU by Greece (even when you consider how they actually got in to the monetary union in the first place). It’s now time for Mr.Sarkozy and Mrs.Merkel to answer to their respective constituents. I doubt they will be so generous with Greece from now on.

So, what is Greece to do now? I wrote about a Greek default several months ago and in short, there is light at the end of the tunnel… however only after a restructure plan that will hurt much more than any EU bailout. The Greeks have lost at least one (possibly two) generations to debt. In a sense, I guess the Greeks have chosen to pull the trigger themselves rather than have it pulled by the international community.

As a Turk, I know about depression and economic volatility so I’m a bit torn between the virtues of the proposed referendum. On one side, I think that Greece should have taken the EU handout as very few countries in the history of the world have ever received so much benefit of the doubt. On the other side, having forced to report to the IMF or other international institutions every time you sneeze can be extraordinarily humiliating.

At the end of the day, investors must realize that these are the hard facts about emerging markets. Not just Greece but all emerging markets. We will find a way around these crisis and believe me, given the right information and guidance, there will be many investors that will come out wealthier at the end of the process.

 

Raising Funds in Emerging Markets

The private equity industry in the emerging markets have been growing at astonishing speeds, however the bulk of capital has traditionally been sourced from North American and European institutional investors. There is serious change in progress. As economic stagnation continues in the developed nations, general partners are looking to institutional investors from many of the emerging markets.

To this end, general partners are realizing that traditional ‘unwritten rules and understandings’ between GP’s and LP’s, so strongly advocated by organizations such as ILPA, are being ‘re-written’. When approaching investors from emerging markets, one must first understand the business culture in an emerging market. At the risk of over-generalizing the facts, there are many similarities in how investors approach deals in any emerging market.

The first thing any general partner will notice is that many institutional investors from emerging markets will want to take part in the investment decision. The second thing any general partner will also notice is that institutional investors will want quicker exit times from portfolio companies and ultimately a shorter life-cycle for the fund itself.

So why do investors from emerging markets want these provisions before making a commitment?

We need to understand the dynamics of an emerging market before we can answer this. Tracking of an investment and a lack of world class (and... trustable) management has always been a point of concern in the emerging markets. One way to solve the problem was to have the investor take an active role in the company in order to protect its interests.

Wild economic swings are a common characteristic in any emerging market. The term ‘long term asset allocation’ has a different meaning to an investor from an emerging market than to an investor from a developed market. Traditionally, investors in emerging markets like to exit within two or three years from any deal.

Many traditional investment ‘rules’ have clearly been transferred to the private equity realm. The rules are changing and many general partners and industry organizations from developed markets must adapt if they wish stay in the business.

 

Infrastructure investors question 2/20 fee structure

Despite growing pressure from investors, just under two thirds of infrastructure funds still charge management fees of two per cent, raising questions as to whether or not interests between fund managers and investors are properly aligned.

via www.altassets.net

When I see articles such as these, I wonder to my self as to which institutional investors still abide by 'industry standard' fees such as the 2/20 model for private equity. The private equity sector has grown considerably over the past decade in terms of both number of deals executed as well as the number of funds in operation. Private equity fee structures have also matured over these years. Management fees are increasingly based on yearly budgets rather than fixed percentages and carried interest is now so very much dependent on performance, its become hard to identify institutional investors going with a traditional 2/20 model these days.

Competition, coupled with a tough economic environment have a way of efficiently restructuring sectors and private equity is no exception. In my view, when carried interest fees in private equity are based on performance rather than fixed standard percentages, it forces GP's to think twice about making hasty acquisition decisions. In particular, a flexible and variable fee standar would be a very effective tool in aligning GP/LP interests in the emerging markets. 

 

Another EU Bailout?

So, yesterday the ECB decided to buy massive amounts of Spanish and Italian bonds in the hopes of stabilizing their respective debt markets. It helped the markets gain ground for about 30 minutes, then they went back into a tailspin along with the rest of the worlds markets. I'm not sure if these regulatory bodies realize that bad debt is simply.... bad debt. One cannot assume (not any more) that once a higher rated agency buys the debt of a lower rated agency that the problems merely go away for everyone. During financially volatile times such as these, this type of help is akin to a Trojan horse. I would argue that the credit rating of the EU is no longer as stable as it was two days ago, before the decision to buy bad debt from irresponsible (or maybe naive) governments. It's turning out to be a nightmare scenario for the Germans.... having to single handedly bail out the entire EU! I wonder who will end up bailing out the Germans?

Good luck to them.

 

 

Mr. Griffin's Awkward Dodd-Frank Remark

There was an important meeting of finance executives in Los Angeles last week. The topic of discussion was primarily on the new Dodd-Frank regulations set to come in effect in the US this year. During the conference, Mr. Griffin made a remark that struck me as... well... odd.

“The governments guarantee should be limited to very narrow risk taking activities. High quality consumer loans, high quality mortgages, high quality corporate loans. We should keep those parts of our financial systems walled off from that part of our financial system that revolves around aggressive risk taking.”

How can this possibly be a solution? The entire financial system (in fact our entire free market system) is based on rewards for taking risks. What exactly is a 'high quality corporate loan'? Is it one that is given to AIG or Lehman Brothers because the markets are soaring and the perceived risk is non-existent?

The reality is that bail outs are and will always be inevitable. Just because regulators tell us that there will be no bail-outs will not eliminate our instinctive nature to take ever greater risks during times of economic growth. The cycle of boom and bust simply cannot be stopped.

What we need is to instill into corporate management, a sense (some may even go as far as calling it 'fear') of accountability and consequence of legal/criminal corporate actions. This may have more of an effect than trying to put together a confusing set or regulations.

 

What if Greece Left the EURO zone?

The extraordinary narrative of Greece’s EURO zone adventures cannot be told without a profound sense of irony and disillusionment. 

At least the next three or four generations of Greeks will be burdened with the heavy austerity measures that are required in order to pull the country out of its debt.  So what if Greece just told the global investment community that it was no longer respecting its debt obligations? What would really happen? After all, it would not be the first time Greece would default on its debts. To examine what would happen, we should really start from why it happened. Anyone who seems to think that no one could have seen this ‘economic freight train’ hurtling directly at them is either blatantly lying or live in a world of absolute denial.

The EU in general has a very schizophrenic (some may even venture to say hypocritical) approach to dealing with its many problems. They seem to systematically ignore (turn a blind eye) to the misdoings of its members, as was the case when Greece and Italy were literally deceitful about their respective financial status to the entire block in their attempts to join the EURO zone. In perfect 20/20 hindsight, it would seem that the Greek government really never stopped misguiding the EU and the rest of the EU never said a word until it was too late to save the country.

What is done is done and at this point in time, Greece has to make some of the toughest decisions in its lifetime.

The default and the ultimate abandonment of the EURO would be a chaotic process at very best.  

The underlying problem with Greece is two-fold: firstly, its tax collection ability/culture is not entrenched and secondly, that the country cannot compete with the more productive nations of Germany or England. The strategy would be to basically take a tremendous hit at the beginning with the hopes of increasing productivity in the future due to a devalued currency. This would however be much more painful (and complicated) than one might think as the implementation would most certainly involve a massive debt default, ultimately crippling the ability of the country to access international finance markets for at least 15 years moving forward.  

The step-by-step implications would be as follows:

Step 1: Leave the EURO and reinstate the old Greek currency, the Drachma.

Step 2: The Drachma would instantly (and severely) devalue against the EURO and other global currencies. 

Step 3: The existing Greek debt burden, which is primarily in EUROs would be virtually impossible to pay off. To this end, Greece would either have to start printing massive amounts of Drachma or go into default. Chances are the country will choose default at this point. 

Step 4:  Short/medium term productivity and would plummet and retail/commodity prices would increase, resulting in severe disruptions in society.

Step 5: If the country can somehow survive through the 5 to 10 years of social and economic chaos, it will slowly start to rebuild productivity through low-priced manufacturing.

If it were easy, Greece would have left the EURO a long time ago. Unfortunately there is no real short cut for the Greeks this time around. Greece would have the benefit of a first movers advantage in that the first country to leave the EURO would be….the winner, if there is such a thing in this situation.

All we are left to do is to wish them patience and strength at this point.

 

Economic Interdependence and the Canadian Elections.

Canadians went to the polls last week to chose their new prime minister for the next four years. It was a hard fought battle that ultimately resulted in a seismic shift in power within the country. Without getting into the specific political details, Canadians elected a majority government that has eluded the country for so many years.

Not only did Canadians elected a majority government, they elected the Conservatives who are often regarded as the ‘business friendly’ party and who are most capable of moving the country forward in a fragile global economic environment.

One would assume that this is great news for the country. There is absolutely no doubt that it is. A majority government means less volatility in a very volatile world. The country is also positioned as one of the top performing developed nations in the world.

One would also assume that the stock exchanges would shoot up against the increasingly better national outlook. Times are certainly changing. The Toronto Stock Exchange (www.tmx.com) was down around 300 point the next day (and ultimately sinking further for another three days straight).  Only ten years ago, an election with such optimum results in any country would result in a strong increase in local exchanges.

It is an interesting example how economically interdependent countries have become. Regardless of how much good news is generated on a local basis, the exchanges (and ultimately the fate of entire economies) are tied so extensively to global issues and events.

I’ve been in Toronto for the past two months and have had an ‘emerging market’ perspective on  many of the national hot topic issues as discussed by politicians since the race began. When we compare the positive results of the election against the volatile backdrop of the global economy, it seems to me that Canadians should concentrate more on how to position the country in a world where power is shifting from traditional leaders to new ones.

I sensed that the general Canadian populace was going through what I call ‘analysis-paralysis’. I believe Canadians need to concentrate on how to develop a solid national resource, financial, economic and energy strategy that will compete and ultimately secure its’ leadership position in the world.